Playing with the data

One of the issues dividing us on the risks if reopening the economy of Washington State is the risk assessment. The media and many politicians have been using the “Case/Fatality Ratio” or CFR. This is an extremely simple calculation to make. Simply divide the number of confirmed cases by the number of fatalities. However, this can be a misleading statistic because it only counts confirmed cases, not the total number of infections.

What is the “Infection Fatality Rate” or IFR? With the widely accepted concept that many people have are infected are “asymptomatic”, or perhaps feel only mild symptoms, it is quite likely that the rate of infection is a great deal higher than the number of confirmed cases. Sadly, the total number of infections is currently unknown. It can be extrapolated, but it is not a known fact. So despite what many media sources imply, the CFR is not the same as, or likely to be even similar to, the IFR.

No one disputes the extreme infectious rate of Covid-19. Rather, it is for that very reason that it is only logical that more people have been infected than have been tested. When there is a higher number of people infected, but not diagnosed, using the CFR results in a high overestimation of the fatality rate.

It is this overestimation that is being pushed by the media, as well as political agenda’s that seem to be supporting the Governor in his reluctance to relax the restrictions of his emergency proclamations. These same proclamations violate the First, Second, and Fourth Amendments to the US Constitution. The Governor instituted these emergency proclamations in an effort to slow the spread of the virus and reduce the risk of overwhelming our medical services in Washington State. These efforts were so effective, that hospitals across the state are currently furloughing medical staff because there is not enough work, or revenue flowing in to continue to pay them. Some rural hospitals are even facing the possibility of not being able to remain open, and possibly being unable to reopen at a later date.

The Governor used his emergency powers to violate the US and Washington Constitutions during the emergency in order to protect the health of citizens and to protect the state’s healthcare facilities from being overwhelmed. However, now his proclamations have been so successful that they risk creating more long term harm to the health of citizens in a broader sense than the coronavirus has had.

I would suggest you call the Governor’s office at (360) 902-4111, and urge him to expand the reopening of the state’s economy in a responsible manner before the damage cannot be reversed. Washington State’s unemployment rate is above 20%. Don’t forget that just over a month ago it was at 5%, and that at the height of the Great Depression it was at 25%. We must begin to open things up before we find ourselves staring at food shortages, large scale permanent business closures. When hospitals are furloughing medical staff due to lack of work and income, the medical emergency is passing. Don’t allow us to be caught again without a proper, fully staffed health care system.